While a number of pitchers have been in the news this spring, some for strong performances, others for less encouraging reasons, Charlie Furbush has remained under the radar. The lack of attention on Furbush is fitting for a pitcher coming off a nondescript rookie season. Though he tossed an occasional gem while the M’s played out the string last summer, 2011 was mostly a struggle for Furbush. He had job security in the form of Anthony Vasquez, but the results in and of themselves were fairly discouraging and consequently, he had only a slim chance of cracking the 2012 rotation out of Spring Training.
Right now, Furbush sits behind Blake Beavan, Erasmo Ramirez, and Kevin Millwood on the depth chart for the rotation. Furbush has four appearances this spring, all of which have been in relief. Eric Wedge has hinted that Furbush has the versatility to be used in both roles, but his usage pattern suggests that, at least initially, Furbush is ticketed for the bullpen. In the long run, the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation out of the spring is meaningless, as it isn’t unusual for the lion’s share of the summer’s starts to be taken by pitchers left out of the opening day rotation. That’s good news as it applies to Furbush, because he’s one of the more intriguing arms in the upper levels of the system and he deserves another opportunity to start.
Let’s begin with the obvious: Furbush was a replacement level starter last year. He conceded sixteen homers in only eighty-five innings and 15% of the fly balls he allowed sailed over the fence, one of the very highest rates in the league. HR/FB% is controversial to use in this context, as it can be seen as an indication of luck more than skill. However, it could also mean that Furbush served up plenty of good pitches to hit. Considering that he allowed five homers in six appearances at Safeco Field (four of which were hit to the ballpark’s murderous left field,) I feel comfortable assuming that Furbush conceded more than his share of hard contact.
Furthermore, Matthew Carruth of Lookout Landing has also noted that Furbush allows an unusual amount of pulled contact: 67% of balls in play against Furbush were pulled, the fourth highest rate among major league pitchers since 2007 (albeit in a tiny sample.) Logically, pulled balls are driven harder than contact hit the other way, so this could explain some of Furbush’s abnormal HR/FB%. I’m not sure if this is a problem that can be solved with better command, or if Furbush’s best bet is regression, but make no mistake: Furbush can’t start in the big leagues with such a high homer rate.
The good news is that the rest of Furbush’s peripherals leave plenty of room for optimism. His K% and BB% were roughly league average over the entire season, but his walk totals actually nosedived once he was traded to Seattle. His BB% was just 2.72 for the M’s last season, more than a full point better than his mark as a Tiger. Furbush’s ERA was hindered by a relatively low percentage of runners stranded and his xFIP (4.25) was actually pretty decent. More importantly, and unlike some of the other contestants for the slots in the back of the rotation, Furbush is capable of missing bats. His strike out rate, swinging strike rate, and outside the zone contact percentage all compare well with Beavan and Millwood:
|
K/9 |
Swinging Strike % |
O-Contact % |
|
|
Charlie Furbush |
7.07 |
8.6% |
66.3 % |
|
Blake Beavan |
3.9 |
5.9% |
84.4% |
|
Kevin Millwood |
5.96 |
6.8% |
77.9% |
(A high % of contact on pitches outside of the strike zone is actually a bad thing, as it indicates that the pitcher in question is hittable and that even the pitches he uses to try and induce swings and misses aren’t fooling hitters.)
Lefties who can throw ninety miles per hour are valuable commodities and Furbush should be given opportunities to succeed at the big league level. While his HR/FB% was quite high last year, a combination of experience, regression, and better fortune could drop that number significantly and in turn lead to a bounceback season. I’m actually having a little trouble understanding why Furbush was brushed aside so quickly for Beavan and Millwood. The two righties can pound the zone, but without any ability to generate swinging strikes, they will be at the mercy of luck and their defense.
Taking a broader look, even if Furbush can’t start for the M’s long term, he should be useful as a reliever. Most relievers gain a few ticks of velocity after a conversion to the bullpen, which would only help generate more weak contact and swinging strikes. He would also be capable of throwing in long relief, or in shorter situations against lefties (Furbush has a significant but not debilitating platoon split.) Still, at this point relief work is a worst-case scenario. More so than with Beavan, there are reasons to be optimistic about Furbush as a starter. He won’t ever win a Cy Young, but with improved command and a better performance on fly balls, Furbush has the ability to be a good back end of the rotation starter.
Pro Ball NW Archive 2007-2012 
Furbush has three major league pitches (fastball, slider, and change), and IMO the only thing that keeps him from being an effective starter is lack of command.
It isn’t that he walks too many people (his BB/9 was a more or less acceptable 2.7 while pitching for Seattle), or that he’s all over the strike zone. He throws strikes all right — they’re just not where they need to be.
When he gets his fastball in on the hands of RH hitters, he gets them out. When he tries to throw the fastball away, he doesn’t get it outside enough. He gets too much of the plate and gets hit.
I posted on his Facebook page and advised him to study Eddie Guardado, who made a pretty good career for himself by painting the outside corner against RH hitters. Furbush has a better fastball than Guardado, and a funky delivery that hides it. I hope Seattle sticks with him, because when he figures it out, he could be a pretty good one.