40-Man Roster Candidates

The deadline for big league teams to set their rosters for the Rule 5 draft is coming up in a few weeks.  Last November Gaby Hernandez, Marwin Vega, Stephen Kahn and Greg Halman were added to the Seattle Mariners 40-man in order to protect them from being drafted in the Rule 5.

There are a ton of Mariners minor leaguers that will be available in Rule 5, but most will be safe given that teams selecting have to keep each pick on their 25-man roster for the entire season.  All but the highest profile position players are safe because of this reason.  Pitchers are more easily hidden in middle relief or mop up duty, and are much more likely to be picked.  Last year, 16 of the 21 first round picks were pitchers.

Here are a few guys the Mariners may add to their 40-man roster in order to protect:

J.C. Ramirez, 21, was signed in 2005 and is arguably Seattle’s best starting pitching prospect, but he is still 2-3 years away from becoming a big league regular.  His numbers in High Desert this season weren’t inspiring, but by most accounts it’s been a productive year for him.  2010 should see him spend most of the season with AA West Tenn.

Michael Pineda, 20, was signed very late in 2005, making it hard to tell if he will be subject to the draft.  I’ve sent a few emails out seeking clarification, but until then let’s assume he is.  Pineda’s pinpoint control could attract teams, but his recent elbow troubles might scare teams away.

Anthony Varvaro, 25, has blossomed since transitioning to the bullpen and could be up for a bullpen spot in Seattle sooner than later.  His Arizona Fall League stint could be seen as a 40-man roster audition.

Ezequiel Carrera, 22, was originally signed by the New York Mets in 2005.  Carrera had a great season for AA West Tenn in 2009, maximizing his overall average tools with a great feel for the game and outstanding approach at the plate.  Carrera should spend most of 2010 with AAA Tacoma but could see some time with Seattle as an extra outfielder.

Ricky Orta, 24, has turned his career around since being converted into a reliever.  Last season with AA West Tenn he threw 41.2 innings of 1.94 ERA ball, striking out 41 while walking 18.  He is one of many Mariner relievers on the verge of making their big league debut.

There are other intriguing players that could be picked, but these are the main guys I’m worried about.  Is there anyone else you’re worried about losing?  You can find the rules here and here.

A Game

Kill some time before the hot stove heats up and test your Seattle Mariners prospect knowledge!  Name the prospects.

Sanchez/Giants, Wilson/Mariners

I’m not sure there is anyone out there that thinks the Seattle Mariners are going to exercise Jack Wilson’s 8.4M option for 2010.  The consensus on how GM Jack Zduriencik handles this seems to be that he’ll decline the option and extend Wilson to a two year deal that would represent a 2010 paycut for Wilson, but would guarentee him more money in the end.  They won’t simply let him loose, despite his poor showing after coming over to Seattle.

Freddy Sanchez, Wilson’s best friend and former Pittsburgh Pirates teammate, found himself in a similar situation with the San Francisco Giants, and could help us see how Wilson’s situation will shake down.  Sanchez also had an $8M option year that the Giants inherited.  Instead of exercising the option, the Giants gave him a 2 year/$12M contract.  Sanchez lost about $2M in 2010, but gained more guaranteed money overall and some security.  Given that he is an injury prone player, security is good.

2 years at $6M per may be a touch steep for Wilson.  Sanchez, when healthy, is a better play than Wilson anyway, so hopefully team Wilson won’t be looking for that amount.  His Seattle debut (injuries, no bat) certainly doesn’t help him at the negotiating table.  My crystal ball says 2 years/$10M.

Brumley Replaces Hines

Geoff Baker is reporting that Mike Brumley has been hired as the Seattle Mariners 3B coach, replacing the recently fired Bruce Hines.  Hines was the only 2009 Mariners coach that won’t be returning in 2010.

Okay, then.  Moving on…

Roster Moves

Shannon Drayer tweets:

Mariners roster moves-Jimenez, LaHair, Messenger, Vega outrighted to AAA-J Thomas claimed by Pirates-40 man at 35

No big surprises here.  Bryan LaHair and Marwin Vega didn’t deserve roster spots, Cesar Jimenez isn’t an ideal bullpen lefty as he doesn’t have a pitch to get lefties out and is recovering from a torn labrum, and Randy Messenger is a dime a dozen reliever.  Justin Thomas would have been nice to keep around, but I won’t miss him much even if he has a Eric O’Flaherty-style rebound in the National League.

Geoff Baker adds that LaHair, Messenger and Jimenez are expected to opt for free agency.

The Mariners will open up a few more roster spots when Miguel Batista, Adrian Beltre, Mike Sweeney and Ken Griffey Jr. become free agents.  I can’t wait to see how these spots are filled!

Offseason: O-Dawg, Catcher, Shortstop

Orlando Hudson

Geoff Baker mentions in his latest blog post that the Seattle Mariners may “take a look at” free agent 2B Orlando Hudson this offseason.  This comes as no surprise considering the team’s reported interest in him last offseason, and that Jose Lopez doesn’t fit well with GM Jack Zduriencik and manager Don Wakamatsu’s plans.  Hudson isn’t a star anymore, but he’d provide a small upgrade over Lopez and would allow Seattle to try and improve another position of need with Lopez.

A veteran catcher?

If I’m the Seattle Mariners I’m very comfortable going into 2010 with Adam Moore and Rob Johnson splitting time behind the plate, but it’s hard to know what  Zduriencik wants to do.  Zduriencik has hinted that he’s concerned with Moore’s inexperience and Johnson’s multiple offseason surgeries, and that a veteran backstop could be joining the team.  Does that mean the Mariners are going to go after a free agent like Greg Zaun, or will they search for a Jaime Burke type in case of emergency?  My gut points to the latter, but we’ll find out soon enough.

Jack Wilson versus the field

I still think that Jack Wilson is the Mariners shortstop for 2010, despite the idea among some fans that a trade for J.J. Hardy is inevitable and that Josh Wilson is a better option than Jack.  I don’t like the idea of trading for Hardy, by the way, unless it’s a true buy low situation, and the reports and rumors hint that the Milwaukee Brewers are not to that point just yet.  I don’t see the bat rebounding to his All Star levels, especially after a league change and transition to Safeco Field.  I do like Jack though, especially if my (and others’) feeling that he’ll be extended to something like 2 years/$8-10M.  But there are several shorstops in free agency that are also known as great glovemen who would cost a fraction of Wilson’s $8.4M 2010 option, and probably less than his discounted extension.

Adam Everett, Omar Vizquel and Alex Gonzalez are among them.  All three have their shortcomings, but Everett and Vizquel can be had for less than $2M and Gonzalez wouldn’t cost much more.  I’d take jack over any of those guys in a vacuum, but if the money saved can be used to upgrade another spot in the lineup then a slight downgrade could be worthwhile.

Following Singh and Patel

If you’re anything like me, you’ve been fascinated by the progression of Rinku Singh and Dinesh Patel, the winner and runner-up of the Million Dollar Arm competition that brought them from agrarian villages outside of Lucknow, India to the Pittsburgh Pirates organization.  The two have pitched fewer than 20 professional innings between them to this point, but their story has already been bought up by Sony as plans for the movie are being made.  A television documentary and book will be released around the same time as the movie if all goes to plan.

While I’d be very interested in all three of those things, I have to wonder if the Indian duo’s representation is putting too much pressure on the 20 year olds.  They win a major competition, sign professional deals, are swept up away from their support systems (Indian families are very tightly knit, to say the least), moved to America, get a lot more press than the average Gulf Coast League relievers, and now they could be coming to a TV, theater and Barnes and Noble near you before their journey is complete.  That is a lot to heap onto a couple of kids who grew up in the shadow of the Himalayas.

Of course, Singh and Patel are supposed to be marketing tools.  It’s more about stirring up interest in India in hopes of bringing more Indian athletes to America to play baseball, and that’s what it is doing.  Season two of Million Dollar Arm is set to begin in November, and the goal is to have 1-3 million competitors this time around.  So, in a sense, Singh and Patel are already a success, but would they not stir up more interest in their home land if they were given the chance to succeed on the field and become legitimate million dollar arms?

Perhaps these guys aren’t feeling the pressure and will be fine.  I look forward to monitoring their progress next season.

Kikuchi to Stay in Japan

Yusei Kikuchi is going to stay in Japan, entering the NPB draft rather than signing as a free agent with an MLB team.  I was very interested in seeing what would change between the two leagues had Kikuchi came to the States, but I guess we’ll have to wait until the next high profile prospect begins having second thoughts about NPB.  Kikuchi would have been a nice prospect for any big league team that might have signed him, but now we’ll probably have to wait about a decade to see him play in the States should he live up to the hype and decide to make the jump at that time.

Much ado about nothing.

How to End on a Good Note

As the Northwest League season neared its end, Seattle Mariners prospect James Jones was hitting .285/.372/.404 through 172 plate appearances with three games remaining.  He ended his pro debut with a .311/.392/.463 line.

Those final three games saw Jones collect 8 hits, including 4 doubles and a home run, as well as one walk as he raised his average 26 points, his OBP 20 points, and his SLG 59 points.  Way to end on a positive note, kid.  In three days he went from ‘very successful debut’ to ‘one helluva debut’– if you’re just looking at his cumulative numbers, of course.

I’m a big fan of Jones and expect big things from him.  He’s big and strong with a good approach and I can’t wait to see what he does next year, especially if they smooth out his swing mechanics a bit.

Strasburg vs. Ackley Video

It’s an intriguing matchup, and one I was looking forward to as soon as it was known that both guys would participate in the Arizona Fall League–  Stephen Strasburg, the top pitcher taken in the 2009 draft, versus Dustin Ackley, the top hitter.  This happened several days ago and if you’ve been following the AFL you’ve surely heard about the outcome, but in case you haven’t I won’t spoil it.  Enjoy.

I can’t wait for future matchups!