40-Man, Player by Player: Charlie Furbush

While a number of pitchers have been in the news this spring, some for strong performances, others for less encouraging reasons, Charlie Furbush has remained under the radar. The lack of attention on Furbush is fitting for a pitcher coming off a nondescript rookie season.  Though he tossed an occasional gem while the M’s played out the string last summer, 2011 was mostly a struggle for Furbush. He had job security in the form of Anthony Vasquez, but the results in and of themselves were fairly discouraging and consequently, he had only a slim chance of cracking the 2012 rotation out of Spring Training.

Right now, Furbush sits behind Blake Beavan, Erasmo Ramirez, and Kevin Millwood on the depth chart for the rotation. Furbush has four appearances this spring, all of which have been in relief. Eric Wedge has hinted that Furbush has the versatility to be used in both roles, but his usage pattern suggests that, at least initially, Furbush is ticketed for the bullpen. In the long run, the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation out of the spring is meaningless, as it isn’t unusual for the lion’s share of the summer’s starts to be taken by pitchers left out of the opening day rotation. That’s good news as it applies to Furbush, because he’s one of the more intriguing arms in the upper levels of the system and he deserves another opportunity to start.

Let’s begin with the obvious: Furbush was a replacement level starter last year. He conceded sixteen homers in only eighty-five innings and 15% of the fly balls he allowed sailed over the fence, one of the very highest rates in the league. HR/FB% is controversial to use in this context, as it can be seen as an indication of luck more than skill. However, it could also mean that Furbush served up plenty of good pitches to hit. Considering that he allowed five homers in six appearances at Safeco Field (four of which were hit to the ballpark’s murderous left field,) I feel comfortable assuming that Furbush conceded more than his share of hard contact.

Furthermore, Matthew Carruth of Lookout Landing has also noted that Furbush allows an unusual amount of pulled contact: 67% of balls in play against Furbush were pulled, the fourth highest rate among major league pitchers since 2007 (albeit in a tiny sample.) Logically, pulled balls are driven harder than contact hit the other way, so this could explain some of Furbush’s abnormal HR/FB%. I’m not sure if this is a problem that can be solved with better command, or if Furbush’s best bet is regression, but make no mistake: Furbush can’t start in the big leagues with such a high homer rate.

The good news is that the rest of Furbush’s peripherals leave plenty of room for optimism. His K% and BB% were roughly league average over the entire season, but his walk totals actually nosedived once he was traded to Seattle. His BB% was just 2.72 for the M’s last season, more than a full point better than his mark as a Tiger. Furbush’s ERA was hindered by a relatively low percentage of runners stranded and his xFIP (4.25) was actually pretty decent. More importantly, and unlike some of the other contestants for the slots in the back of the rotation, Furbush is capable of missing bats. His strike out rate, swinging strike rate, and outside the zone contact percentage all compare well with Beavan and Millwood:

 

	K/9	Swinging Strike %	O-Contact %
Charlie Furbush	7.07	8.6%	66.3 %
Blake Beavan	3.9	5.9%	84.4%
Kevin Millwood	5.96	6.8%	77.9%

 

(A high % of contact on pitches outside of the strike zone is actually a bad thing, as it indicates that the pitcher in question is hittable and that even the pitches he uses to try and induce swings and misses aren’t fooling hitters.)

 

Lefties who can throw ninety miles per hour are valuable commodities and Furbush should be given opportunities to succeed at the big league level. While his HR/FB% was quite high last year, a combination of experience, regression, and better fortune could drop that number significantly and in turn lead to a bounceback season. I’m actually having a little trouble understanding why Furbush was brushed aside so quickly for Beavan and Millwood. The two righties can pound the zone, but without any ability to generate swinging strikes, they will be at the mercy of luck and their defense.

Taking a broader look, even if Furbush can’t start for the M’s long term, he should be useful as a reliever. Most relievers gain a few ticks of velocity after a conversion to the bullpen, which would only help generate more weak contact and swinging strikes. He would also be capable of throwing in long relief, or in shorter situations against lefties (Furbush has a significant but not debilitating platoon split.) Still, at this point relief work is a worst-case scenario. More so than with Beavan, there are reasons to be optimistic about Furbush as a starter. He won’t ever win a Cy Young, but with improved command and a better performance on fly balls, Furbush has the ability to be a good back end of the rotation starter.

Mariners Assign Seven More to Minor League Camp

The Mariners have sent seven more players to minor league camp. They include pitchers Matt Fox, Sean Henn, Oliver Perez, Aaron Heilman, Josh Kinney, and Jeff Marquez as well as outfielder Trayvon Robinson. The re-assignments trim the current Spring Training roster to forty players. The Mariners need to cut ten more by Thursday, when the club travels to Japan to prepare for their opening series with Oakland.

There aren’t any shocking cuts in the list above. I’m mildly surprised that Aaron Heilman got cut this early in the same way that I’m mildly surprised when I run out of cereal. All of the pitchers were long shots once the M’s signed George Sherrill and Shawn Camp, while Robinson’s opportunity to head north was all but over once Michael Saunders did something interesting.

Mariners baseball: eleven days away.

40-Man, Player by Player: John Jaso

Without really crowdsourcing at all, I would imagine that a majority of tuned in Mariner fans were pleased with the John Jaso trade. As the M’s and their supporters are all too aware, finding a decent big league catcher isn’t easy, and the acquisition came with the added bonus of sending Josh Lueke out the door.

If there was any facet of the deal that made fans pause, it was the ease in which Jaso was acquired. We’re talking about a catcher who posted a 116 wRC+ in 2010 and has four years of team control left on his contract. Why did the Rays give him away for a marginally effective reliever with a well documented off field history?

The easy answer is that the Rays simply didn’t think Jaso was going to be effective going forward. Jaso was dealt to the M’s on November 27th, and considering that Jose Molina signed a deal with the club one day later, I’ll just go ahead and assume that they weighed the pros and cons of each and went with Molina. As to why the Rays opted for a career backup over a guy like Jaso who should, at least in theory, be in his prime, I think there were three main reasons.

First, Jaso’s defense isn’t very good. Catcher defense is difficult to quantify, but from what research has been done, Jaso doesn’t stack up well with the competition and he compares particularly poorly with Molina. Molina is one of the best in the business at throwing out runners (40% caught stealing rate for his career) while Jaso’s meager 19% CS rate doesn’t really deter anyone from trying to take an extra base.

Additionally, saberist Mike Fast (now employed by the Houston Astros) has done some research on pitch framing, and while defensive numbers should always be viewed with a hefty dose of skepticism, he found that Molina was the best in baseball at framing pitches. By contrast, Jaso was a below average receiver. If Fast’s estimates are correct, Molina is more than a win better than Jaso due to pitch framing alone.

Second, Jaso was never an impact prospect, and his major league breakout was something of a surprise. The Rays have a reputation for moving players through their farm system slowly, but Jaso’s pace through the minors was glacial. He was only an eighth round pick, but even the low picks that reach the majors tend to show their skills early and are promoted quickly. Jaso spent six and a half seasons in the minors before getting called up for good in 2010 and he repeated a level on three separate occasions. His minor league career is a lesson in perseverance but also serves as an indication that the Rays never thought terribly highly of him as a major league catcher. I’m not saying the Rays are right or wrong about Jaso: only that a quick review of his career suggests that the Tampa Bay brass still haven’t bought into his breakout from two years ago.

Finally, the biggest reason Jaso was available on the cheap is because he had a lousy year in 2011. Oftentimes a poor season  is a great buy-low opportunity, particularly when a player’s performance is hindered by injuries or extenuating circumstances, or when his peripherals suggest a rebound is likely. None of those appear to be at play with Jaso. Yes, he did visit the disabled list with an oblique strain, but he was already well on his way to a bad year at the plate when he went down in July.

Worse, a glance at Jaso’s peripherals indicate some concerning trends. A calling card of Jaso’s game is his selectivity at the plate: he walked in nearly 15% of his plate appearances in 2010 and that figure is backed by several similar percentages when he was a minor leaguer. He complemented his ability to take a walk with good bat control: he only struck out in 9% of his PA’s in 2010, and again, posted similar minor league figures. Those numbers flipped in 2011. In and of itself, that kind of a switch in both BB% and K% is unusual. For Jaso, it’s also unfortunate, because without any power, he needs to walk and give himself plenty of chances to get on via a base hit. Less walks and more strikeouts defeat both both objectives. And while it’s true that his numbers in 2011 were deflated by a lousy BABIP, a slow catcher who hits a lot of ground balls is a bad candidate to post a high figure in that department going forward.

Ultimately, Jaso seems more like a very good backup catcher and decent pinch hitter than a big league starter. In addition to his struggles last year, he’s neutered by lefties (.188 career batting average) and at age twenty-eight isn’t likely to get a whole lot better. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t worth acquiring: not by a longshot. He does hit righties pretty well (career 104 wRC+) and his defense is probably a little better than what Miguel Olivo and Jesus Montero can provide. If Jaso can prove that 2010 was no fluke, and that he can be a solid big league regular, Jack Z will have swindled another victim. But even if Jaso doesn’t have that kind of projection, he still can be effective in a platoon, and his bat off the bench can pay dividends for years to come.

40-Man, Player by Player: Johermyn Chavez

Perhaps no player on the Mariners 40-man roster would like to forget the 2011 campaign quite as much as Johermyn Chavez. After hitting well in High Desert in 2010 and establishing himself as a legitimate prospect, the wheels fell off for Chavez in Double A. His home run total plummeted from thirty-two to thirteen upon promotion and his wRC+* was an ugly 79. Ranked among the best outfield prospects in the system prior to the 2011 season, Chavez heads to camp this year just hoping to bounce back and remain a part of the team’s long term plan.

*- wRC+ is like OPS+, only with wOBA instead of OPS. Like OPS+, 100 is league average, 125 is good, 150 is great, and 79 is quite lousy. 

Before we assess his chances of contributing to the Mariners, it’s helpful to examine what caused Chavez to rocket up Mariner prospect lists in the first place. While he was still in Toronto’s system, Chavez had a decent 2009 season: he hit twenty-one home runs and slugged .474. Chavez’s star potential was muted because he was repeating low single A and his power was saddled by a lot of swing and miss. Still, his offensive upside was obvious, even if his odds of becoming a big league stalwart were small.

In 2010, he seemingly had a breakout season. Besides the impressive power numbers mentioned above, Chavez improved his walk and strikeout rates, and continued to receive praise for his throwing arm in right field. Beneath the surface, though, there were some concerns that appear more obvious in hindsight. He struggled defensively, running poor routes in the outfield and his speed was “now below average and slowing rapidly.”

At the plate, Chavez’s impressive numbers were boosted by one of the best hitting environments in professional baseball. The California League is well known for inflating offensive production, particularly in the ballparks in the league’s Southern Division (where the Mariners affiliate in High Desert plays.) Furthermore, Chavez did his best work in the particularly friendly confines of High Desert’s ridiculously named Stater Bros Stadium: he hit just .276 on the road, and twenty-two of his longballs came at home. With all of the caveats, it was still a good season for Chavez, though not as impressive as it appeared at first glance.

Even if the expectations for Chavez in 2011 were a bit more tempered than they were, his performance in double A would still have been disappointing. He struck out in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances, speed was no more than a peripheral part of his game, and  he slugged just .364, far too low for a one-dimensional corner outfielder. Chavez appears to be coachable (“you never stop learning in baseball”) and has reportedly made some adjustments to his swing in preparation for the upcoming season, but he will need to translate that work into production this year in order to advance to triple A.

Chavez is unlikely to help the Mariners recoup the value they lost when Morrow was dealt away. At twenty-three, he’s young enough to repeat double A and conceivably help the Mariners down the line. But before he can think about making the big club, he needs to prove that 2010’s power numbers were not a product of the California League. With limited defensive value, Chavez will need to hit big to even reach the majors, much less start. And with a crowded outfield picture on the 40-man roster, Chavez will face all the more pressure to bounce back quickly to avoid becoming a casualty in the never ending roster bind. If he doesn’t rebound, Johermyn Chavez could be destined for a career as a minor league lifer.

40-Man, Player by Player: Chance Ruffin

Chance Ruffin is a little different than most of his teammates. No, he doesn’t utter memorable quotes (that’s Ichiro,) stomp around on the field (we remember you Milton Bradley,) or feature a particular pitch that defies what we know about baseball (Felix!) With Ruffin, there are more subtle factors in play.

First, he doesn’t fit the typical description of a late inning reliever, as he relies more on command of his fastball and feel for his breaking balls than pure power. Second, his windup is unusual: unlike most rigidly structured deliveries, Ruffin’s motion is hectic, with a high leg kick leading to a dip of the head, which in turn springs his left leg back towards the plate. Third, Ruffin is the son of former major leaguer Bruce Ruffin, and Chance was the only member of the 2011 Mariners to have a father that played in the show. Most interestingly, Ruffin is the only prospective member of the Mariner bullpen to have been truly groomed for work as a relief pitcher.

Because starters are inherently more valuable than relievers, clubs will use a pitcher in the rotation for as long as he stands a feasible chance of competently starting major league games. Starting help builds stamina, forces pitchers to deepen their arsenal, and allows them ample opportunity to learn how to pitch when they are at less than full strength. As just about every major league pitcher was the ace of his respective high school or college team, nearly all of them were drafted as starting pitchers.

Ruffin, in contrast, has spent almost all of his college and minor league career in the bullpen. In fact, Ruffin and Sean Kelley are the only two returning Mariners in camp that have been employed strictly as relievers throughout their professional careers, and even Kelley was a full time starter in college. Ruffin started eighteen games during his sophomore year at the University of Texas, but at the time had middling stuff, and he was not considered an impact prospect. Thrust into the closer role as a junior, Ruffin thrived. He posted an absurd 1.11 ERA with ninety-seven strikeouts in just under sixty-five innings, and he was rewarded for his strong season by a first round selection from the Detroit Tigers.

While Ruffin’s lack of a dominating outpitch rendered him an unlikely candidate for a high draft pick (most teams are hesitant to draft relievers early, particularly when the pitcher in question is likely destined for an eighth inning role) his career serves an example of what a successful transition to the bullpen looks like. Not everyone can start, and by turning into a reliever, Ruffin gave himself a much better chance of reaching the major leagues, and arriving there quickly. Three factors indicated that Ruffin possessed a skill set more suited to relief work:

1. Ruffin had already developed a nasty hybrid breaking ball (he alternates between throwing his slider traditionally and throwing it softer, like a slurve) that is particularly useful out of the bullpen.

2. Ruffin’s delivery is difficult to repeat. I can’t speak for Ruffin’s conditioning, but it is fairly typical for pitchers with motions featuring unusual or excessive movement to struggle when they get deep in games.

3. Ruffin would have been a project as a starter, but was nearly big league ready as a reliever.

In 2012, Ruffin will have to battle for a spot on the roster out of Spring Training. He’s probably behind Kelley, Tom Wilhelmsen, Brandon League, George Sherrill, and Shawn Camp in the competition for middle and late inning duties, meaning that at least initially, Ruffin is likely ticketed for Tacoma. However, Ruffin is one of the Mariners better prospects, and he figures to make an impact in Seattle before long.

40-man, Player by Player: Tom Wilhelmsen

In past years, part of our pre-season coverage has been an attempt to profile everybody on the 40-man roster. We’re trying it again this year, beginning with Tom Wilhelmsen.

Wilhelmsen’s Make or Break Year

With apologies to Steve Delabar and Alex Liddi, my favorite story from the 2011 Mariners remains the unlikely debut and success of Tom Wilhelmsen. For those unfamiliar with his career path, Wilhelmsen was Milwaukee’s seventh round pick back in 2002. He was a hard throwing starter fresh out of high school, and while his arm was as good as any in the system, Wilhelmsen readily admitted he wasn’t mentally prepared for the grind of minor league baseball. He pitched well in 2003, but following a couple positive tests for marijuana in the off-season, he was suspended for the 2004 campaign. He retired in 2005 and spent the next five years away from the game.

In 2009, Wilhelmsen decided to give baseball another shot. He worked himself back into playing shape and signed a deal with the independent Golden League’s Tucson Toros. After a handful of appearances with the Toros, the Mariners took a flier on Wilhelmsen (it is worth mentioning that Jack Zduriencik was Milwaukee’s scouting director when the Brewers selected Wilhelmsen.) He pitched well in his first full minor league season since 2003 (albeit against weak competition,) striking out seventy-three hitters in seventy-four innings while posting a 2.19 earned run average. He parlayed his minor league success into a spring training invite in 2011 and after a strong spring, Wilhelmsen became the 2011 season’s unlikeliest big leaguer.

————–

Once in Seattle, Wilhelmen looked like… well, like a bartender pitching in the major leagues. In his first stint with the big club, Wilhelmsen showed impressive velocity and pedestrian control. He struggled with his command, often falling behind in the count, and the result was a high ERA to go along with nine walks in eight appearances. Eric Wedge never used Wilhelmsen in high leverage situations and after working only sparingly, he returned to the minor leagues to prepare for a career as a starter.

Again, Wilhelmsen labored. He struggled to get deep into games and his overpowering stuff didn’t translate into dominating results, even against double A competition. In his final start, he lasted only two innings, allowing three long balls and eight runs. Somewhat surprisingly, he was recalled to Seattle soon after.

Strangely, this is when Wilhelmsen exploded. After two middling performances at the onset of his promotion, Wilhelmsen was as dominant as any reliever in baseball over the rest of the season. He pounded the strike zone and the combination of his blistering heater (average speed over ninety-five MPH) and a buckling curve ball produced unexpected results. Take a look:

Before August 20th: 14.1 innings, 6.28 ERA, 10 strikeouts, 12 walks, 1 HR, .298/.408/.368

After: 18.1 innings, 0.98 ERA, 20 strike outs, 1 walk, 1 HR, .129/.169/.210

I understand that we’re dealing with small sample sizes here. Even worse, we’re dealing with small sample sizes from a reliever (and I cherry picked an arbitrary end-point to boot.) Please do not take the above numbers as a suggestion that Wilhelmsen is undeniably awesome and past all his control problems, etc. They are simply meant to illustrate that when Wilhelmsen throws strikes, he can be a weapon out of the bullpen. Before that magic date, Wilhelmsen only threw strikes on 56.7% of his pitches. Afterwards, his strike percentage jumped to 63%, a figure slightly above league average. It’s a big if, but IF Wilhelmsen can throw strikes like he did at the end of last season, he has the potential to pitch at the back end of games for a long time.

The question moving forward is where Wilhelmsen fits in with the roster. With off-season additions Hong-Chih Kuo, Shawn Camp, and George Sherrill joining holdovers Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Chance Ruffin, and more in a competition for innings, it’s not clear what role Wilhelmsen will fill out of the bullpen. Of all the players on the forty man roster, his role may just be the most volatile. He clearly has the capacity to be a star reliever. He also has control problems in his recent history that suggest he may be destined for long relief, or even ticketed for a demotion. There are also still whispers that, particularly considering the limited mileage on his arm, the organization should consider trying him as a starter again.

Personally, I think I would keep him in the bullpen. His exploits at the end of last year were predicated upon success with two pitches (he was barely throwing his changeup at all) and it’s tough to succeed as a starter with such a limited arsenal. Whichever way the M’s brass wants to use him, though, this is a make or break season for the righty. On the basis of pure stuff, Wilhelmsen’s arm rivals any of the relievers in the entire system, and it’s not hard to envision him pitching in the late innings for years to come. On the other hand, the M’s are already overflowing with viable relief candidates and even more options loom on the horizon (Forest Snow, Stephen Pryor, etc.) If Wilhelmsen struggles with his control again, the organization may have a short leash with him.

Ultimately, 2012 sets the tone for Wilhelmsen’s career. His performance this year could cement his status as a member of the team or cause him to wind up in Triple-A. As a likable guy with a great backstory, everyone is rooting for him to have all the success in the world. If he does, the M’s can make him a part of their long term plan. Of course, that is a big if.

Evaluating the NRI List

One of the annual traditions of Spring Training is a week of games that produce box scores full of obscure players most fans have never heard of. Every year there are a bunch of unearthed prospects (who’s that Bloomquist guy?) trying to impress the coaching staff or guys that only the most dedicated supporters realize are coming to camp with Seattle (we signed Ryan Minor?) So, to keep you in the loop and prevent you from anguish, I’ve compiled a little guide to this year’s non-roster invitation list. If you’re reading this, you’re probably pretty familiar with the major league guys coming to Peoria, so we’ll gloss over those. I have, however, taken the liberty of including all the players on the 40-man roster who have never appeared in a big league game (guys like Danny Hultzen, Carlos Triunfel, etc.) If you’ve been watching other sports this winter or have just tuned out on minor Mariner details, this is your chance to get caught up on who’s heading to Peoria in a week and a half (we’re so close!)

Without further ado, here’s a summary of all the other players who will be suiting up for the M’s down in Arizona, organized by how likely they are to make the team.

All but official:

Pitchers: Kevin Millwood, Hisashi Iwakuma

I can’t imagine Millwood signing here if he didn’t have the impression that he was going to get every opportunity to head north as the fifth starter. Unless he all of the sudden can’t hit eighty on the gun, he’s in. Iwakuma is listed here because of my dopey parameters for this post.

Competing for a spot: 

Pitchers: Aaron Heilman, Josh Kinney, Stephon Pryor, Forrest Snow, Phil Valiquette, Danny Hultzen

Infielders: Carlos Guillen, Luis Rodriguez, Munenori Kawasaki

Of this group, one of the first five will probably make the squad as a middle reliever. Heilman and Kinney have major league experience, while Pryor and Snow are both intriguing prospects fresh off a tour in the Arizona Fall League. Pryor throws hard and has been closing in the minors; he probably has the most long term upside of this group. Valiquette was claimed off waivers this off-season, and while he is more fringy than the other four, he is a lefty who throws ninety-nine miles per hour. Those don’t exactly grow on trees.

Guillen could conceivably start at third base if the organization doesn’t want to run with Kyle Seager out of the blocks. Otherwise, one of he, Rodriguez, or Kawasaki will likely break camp as the backup infielder. Millwood’s signing lessens the chance that Hultzen will pull off the rare college-to-majors jump.

Longshots:

Pitchers:

Matt Fox, Steve Garrison, Sean Henn, Jeff Marquez, Scott Patterson, Oliver Perez, Erasmo Ramirez, Lucas Luetge

Outfielders:

Darren Ford, Vinnie Catricala

Garrison, Henn and Luetge are all lefties that had an outside but realistic chance to make the team before George Sherrill signed a contract. Now, they’re mostly interchangeable pieces of Lookout Landing’s famous pile. Henn throws fairly hard and gets some ground balls. Luetge struck out a batter per inning in double-A last year, but he is twenty-four, and that’s a little old for the league. He is a rule five pick, however, so if the club likes him, they could find a spot on the roster for him.

I’m not sure if Oliver Perez is in camp to push some of the young starters or if he’s willing to possibly consider pitching out of the bullpen. If he wants to take a crack at relieving, there have been crazier reclamation projects that have panned out.

Patterson is unlikely to make the team, but he’s kind of a sleeper of mine. He’s just a two pitch righty without overwhelming stuff, but he posted a cool 2.44 FIP in Tacoma last year and he settled in as the Rainiers closer as they played out the string.

Ford could conceivably make the team as the fifth outfielder; he’s the obvious pinch runner, defensive oriented candidate if the M’s want to send Michael Saunders back to Tacoma. Catricala probably won’t appear in the big leagues until later this year or 2013. He tore through double A after a mid-season promotion and rocketed up prospect lists, thanks to a .347/.420/.632 line in sixty games.

No chance:

Pitchers: Jarret Grube, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, Yoervis Medina

Catchers: Ralph Henriquez, Guillermo Quiroz, Jesus Sucre

Infielders: Nick Franklin, Francisco Martinez, Carlos Triunfel

Outfielders: Luis Jimenez, Johermyn Chavez, Chih-Hsien Chiang

Paxton, Walker, Franklin, Martinez, Triunfel, Chavez, and Chiang are here for the experience. All of them are talented but are various years away from realistically competing to make the club. Grube (30) and Jimenez (29) are organizational soldiers that have steadily risen through the minor league ranks over the years. I’m rooting for them to get a cup of coffee somewhere before they have to hang ’em up, but I just can’t see a place for them on this team right now. Henriquez, Quiroz, and Sucre are in camp to catch bullpens; with five catchers ahead of them on the forty-man roster, they’re buried on the depth chart.

Baseball. We’ve almost made it to you.

Pineda, Campos Traded For Montero & Noesi

The trade isn’t finalized quite yet, but all reports are saying that Michael Pineda and pitching prospect Jose Campos have been traded to New York for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi. There are stray rumors that others (including Ivan Nova, who would be a real coup) may be involved in the deal as well, but this appears to be the core of the trade. I find it very amusing that amid the immense Prince Fielder speculation this off-season, the roster just got overhauled with virtually no rumors preceding the deal’s announcement until news of the trade blew up on Twitter. But that’s not really important right now.

What is important is that the Mariners just traded their second best pitcher for a hitting prospect that is instantly the best power threat on the team and probably the most talented hitter in the organization. While much of Montero’s allure is tied up in his potential, he was brilliant in limited at-bats during his brief major league stint last season. He’s also major league ready: he spent 2011 in Triple-A simply because the Yankees didn’t have a place to play him regularly. No matter how anyone feels about who won the trade, there isn’t much doubt that Montero can really hit. Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus’ minor league maven rated him the number one prospect in the Yankees system last year and scouts universally praise his ability to hit for average as well as power. 

A Reminder About Casper Wells

We’re at the point in the off-season where much of the roster analysis of the team turns from an outlook of whom the M’s might acquire to how the organization is likely to utilize the talent on hand. There are still rumors about potential free agents, and if Prince Fielder were to sign, that would certainly alter the season’s outlook. Still, analysts are beginning to assess the roster as is, and no matter which direction the club goes on Fielder, there are some players that most people would be comfortable penciling in to significant roles. Strangely, one of those players is Casper Wells.

First, I should acknowledge that there are reasons to be optimistic about Wells in 2012. Wells was the oldest and most developed of the collection of prospects that roamed the M’s outfield last season. Wells hit .237/.317/.442 last season, and he managed a .431 slugging percentage after the trade, no small feat for a right hander playing in Safeco. He also played well in the outfield and even looked comfortable in his limited time as a center fielder.

The Oakland Athletics

The Seattle Mariners have been a mostly bad baseball team over the past decade. This is hardly a controversial statement: the M’s have gone a decade between playoff appearances, eight years without a ninety win season, and have lost at least ninety games in three of the last four campaigns. That this run of mediocrity has coincided with one of the worst offensive “attacks” in baseball history has only magnified the team’s poor play. The performance on the field has been so bad that the organization ran an advertisement not only recognizing but also poking fun at the team’s ineptitude.

Through it all, a sort of bond has developed among the most dedicated members of the Mariners fanbase. The sentiment behind this bond is best captured by the aforementioned commercial, in which a man about to get a chest wax shrugs off the possibility that the procedure may be painful by saying, “Oh I can handle pain… I’m a Mariners fan.” While I find the commercial hilarious (I still can’t believe they ran that) and the losing frustrating, I think we Mariners fans ought to be thankful. I’m not declaring that we ought to accept losing or strive for mediocrity, but rather that we should have a little perspective. For as bad as things at Safeco Field have been lately, we can still take some measure of solace: at least we’re not rooting for the Oakland A’s.